Everyone Who Ever Lived
June 28, 2010
Global population growth is on track to reach 7 billion in 2011. We hit 6 billion just 11 years ago, in 1999.
So, how big is the set of all people who have ever lived on Earth? About 107 billion, if estimates I’ve adjusted from the Population Reference Bureau are correct (I’ve added 600 million to their 2002 numbers and rounded down). That would mean that about 6% of everyone who ever lived is alive today.
This infographic, from Jon Gosier, helps to visualize the numbers:
Click to enlarge.
Via coolinfographics.
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I’m having a hard time with an estimate that calls itself semi-science. I’m also wondering whether a group of hominoids that had a ten-year average life span could really be counted as humans as we know them. Assuming a standard nine-month gestation and at least a year of nursing before turning the critters out on their own would mean that on average a female would have to be pregnant at eight years old to even have one offspring that might not be eaten by a sabertooth tiger (or a tyrannosaurus rex for the creationist crowd.). So you’d have to assume that there are some four and five year old humans having offspring for this model to work.
Say 50% of humans died in infancy and the other 50% lived to age 20. Average lifespan? 10 years. Plenty of time for multiple gestations and births.
Of course, you’re right that this estimate probably isn’t accurate. Still, it’s only meant to be a ballpark figure. And really there’s no way we’ll ever know how accurate it is. And there’s the obvious line-drawing problem: when should we differentiate humans as a species from its predecessors? And so on….