RSS FeedCongressional Approval
John Sides at the Monkey Cage shares some interesting bits of analysis from Alan Abramowitz about congressional approval. It seems that, oddly enough, the electoral fortunes of members of Congress bear little relation to what the public thinks about members of Congress. More important is what the public thinks about the President.
The data show that when the president is more popular, Congress tends to be more popular and when the president is less popular, Congress tends to be less popular. Moreover, this is true even when Congress and the presidency are controlled by different parties.
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Discontent with Congress does not lead to a general tendency to kick out incumbents. Occasionally voters do get upset and give the boot to a large number of incumbents—but they almost always take out their dissatisfaction on the members of only one party—the president’s party.
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This brings up the most important point about evaluations of Congress. They have very little influence on how Americans vote in congressional elections. When it comes to choosing candidates for Congress, it is opinions of the president’s performance that matter.
This, I think, suggests that the accountability crisis I’ve been harping on should be especially intense when the majority party in the Senate also holds the White House—because then the Senate minority has the greatest incentive (assuming they grasp the implications of this dynamic) to grind the legislature to a halt, because gridlock will be bad for the President’s party. Conversely, the minority should think twice about obstructionism in Congress if it holds the presidency.
Would that mean that congressional majorities are in a stronger position when their party is not in the White House? I seriously doubt it. In that situation the minority party holds the ultimate weapon of obstruction: the presidential veto.
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